Джон Харди,

главный валютный стратег Saxo Bank

Эпоха отказа от чрезмерных монетарных стимулов в самом разгаре: на этой неделе в среду состоится заседание Банка Канады, который, вероятно, первым среди регуляторов валют Б10, присоединится к Федрезерву и повысит ставку. Еще одним ключевым событием недели станет выступление главы ФРС Джанет Йеллен в Конгрессе.

Все ждут от Банка Канады повышения ставки на четверть процента на заседании в среду.

Опубликованный в пятницу отчет по рынку труда не внес ясность. Высокий показатель роста занятости по платежным ведомостям на фоне пересмотренных в сторону повышения значений за предыдущий период развеяли сомнения тех, кто опасался охлаждения на рынке труда; однако темпы роста почасовых доходов снова не оправдали ожиданий, дав инвесторам повод сомневаться в том, что Федрезерв выполнит обещания по количеству повышений ставки в ближайшие 18 месяцев. В этом плане теория рынка вновь подвергнется испытанию: на этой неделе глава ФРС Джанет Йеллен выступает в обеих палатах Конгресса в рамках полугодового доклада Хамфри Хокинса.

Несмотря на слабые показатели роста доходов, ставки в США, как, впрочем, и в Европе – закончили неделю в плюсе. Выяснилось, что Европейский центральный банк покупает облигации в центральных странах в объеме меньшем, чем мог бы в рамках capital key; эта новость привела к росту доходности в Еврозоне, при этом долгосрочные немецкие облигации достигли новых максимумов с начала 2016 года.

На саммите Б20 состоялась примечательная встреча президента США Трампа и президента России Путина, на которой лидеры двух стран договорились о частичном прекращении огня в Сирии и дали какое-то невнятное обещание вместе работать над кибербезопасностью. В остальном саммит выдался скучным, а коммюнике – слабым, четко прослеживалась изоляция США в ключевых вопросах, таких как парижское соглашение по климату.

Канадский центральный банк в среду повысит ставку на 25 базисных пунктов до 0,75% – впервые с 2010 года. Таким образом, Банк Канады первым среди развитых экономик последует примеру ФРС и начнет ужесточать политику. Хороший отчет по рынку труда за июнь и высокие показатели PMI Ivey, опубликованные в пятницу, делают вопрос о повышении практически решенным. Интересно отметить, что доходность по двухлетним облигациям Канады сейчас примерно на 40 пунктов выше 0,75%, то есть уровня после предполагаемого повышения в среду. Это значит, что рынок ждет от регулятора дальнейшего ужесточения.

EURNOK

Дивергенция на графике EURNOK подтвердилась сегодня утром благодаря неожиданно высокому CPI. Таким образом, пара нацелена на движение в область 9,30-35.

Источник: Saxo Bank

Обзор валют Б-10

USD Доллар не получил четких сигналов от неоднозначного пятничного отчета по рынку труда. На этой неделе в центре внимания выступление главы ФРС Йеллен и то, как ее традиционно осторожная риторика согласуется со скептическим настроем рынка в отношении прогнозов Центробанка по динамике ставок (и не безосновательным, поскольку последние два года регулятору не удается выполнить задуманное).

EUR EURUSD растет, при этом паре нужно развить восходящую динамику после прорыва ключевого уровня 1.1300, в противном случае она надолго увязнет в консолидации с тенденцией к понижению. На этой неделе мы с любопытством следим за доходностью в Европе, особенно нас интересуют 10-летние облигации Германии с доходностью выше 50 базисных пунктов.

JPY Иена снова снижается на фоне роста доходности, в том числе и благодаря резкому росту интереса к риску. Премьер-министр Синзо Абэ затеял очередные перестановки в кабинете министров, а его рейтинг популярности падает, несмотря на улучшение состояния японской экономики. Не забудьте про нисходящий потенциал кроссов с иеной если/когда Банк Японии откажется от попыток контролировать кривую доходности.

GBP Фунт спустился к области 0,8850 в паре EURGBP, при этом валюта держится неплохо, учитывая политическую изоляцию Британии и риски, связанные с Брекзитом. Рост EURGBP — оптимальный способ сыграть на ослаблении фунта.

CHF EURCHF нацелена на 1,1000 в ожидании отчета Банка Швейцарии по депозитам — хотя, если доходность в мире продолжит расти, еженедельные данные НБШ по вкладам до востребования утратят актуальность, а EURCHF устремится в область 1,1200+.

AUD Рынку сложно определиться с направлением движения австралийского доллара после неудачного заседания Резервного банка Австралии на прошлой неделе. Локальный медвежий разворот в паре AUDUSD создает условия для нисходящей коррекции.

CAD Канадский доллар растет в ожидании повышения ставки в среду. Банку Канады не составит труда разочаровать рынок, учитывая то, насколько активно инвесторы пересматривают свои позиции по CAD.

NZD Графики по AUDNZD и NZDUSD говорят о том, что восходящий тренд по новозеландскому доллару теряет силу — ближайшим важным событием станет еженедельный аукцион на молочную продукцию и CPI — и то и другое запланировано на вторник.

SEK EURSEK снижается и может достичь области 9,50 или ниже, поскольку Риксбанк не способен отпугнуть быков по SEK.

NOK Отчет по CPI в Норвегии за июнь вышел лучше ожиданий (что не удивительно, учитывая слабую валюту), и теперь по EURNOK (см. график выше) формируется тройная дивергенция. Однако валюте есть куда корректироваться, прежде чем мы изменим свою оценку.

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